“Read last year’s market predictions and you’ll never again take this year’s predictions seriously.” – Morgan Housel
Happy New Year!
In a break with tradition, we’re sharing with you some of the finest forecasts and predictions for 2024 that we’ve been able to source.
Take your pick from the following, Wells Fargo , Schroders , BNY Mellon , Vanguard , Goldman Sachs and M&G Investments.
The track record of fund managers, stockbrokers, economists and investors of all kinds to accurately forecast is well documented and evidentially appalling.
So why do we still love to read predictions?
Esteemed author, Morgan Housel, believes there are two reasons why predictions will never go away despite the horrible track record in the financial industry.
First, it’s exciting to predict change. It can be extremely lucrative if you’re correct, so we’re always going to be drawn to predictions.
Second, there is a lot of discomfort in the uncertainty that humans feel from the idea that the future is inherently unknowable. And predictions (even if incorrect) reduce that discomfort.
One really important point that Morgan makes is that the financial industry as well as many other fields (politics, medicine, etc) are reasonably good at predicting some parts of the future, but they are terrible at forecasting the surprises, which tend to be all that matters.
We’ll repeat the same message many times throughout 2024.
You do not need to play the forecasting or prediction game to have a successful investment experience.
Take 2023 as a perfect example of how stock markets shrugged off geopolitical crises and financial uncertainty in the article Many Happy Returns by David Booth, Founder and Chairman of Dimensional.
Simply employ what we have learnt from the greatest minds in academia over the last 50 years and you will be absolutely fine, better still, you’ll avoid many of the “car crash” investment experiences we regularly have to review and help unwind.
Second Opinion Service
We often seek out more than one perspective for matters of health. The same common-sense advice can apply to financial health as well. That’s why we offer our second opinion service.
If you, your family or close friends could benefit from a fresh perspective, please let us know in the form below. Any information you share with us will be treated with the careful handling it deserves.
At a second opinion meeting, we’ll assess where you are now, where you want to go, and the best ways we see to close that gap. If you could potentially benefit from working with us, we’ll say so. If we find you are already on the right financial path, we’ll tell you that as well.
To ask a question or arrange a second opinion meeting, please complete the form below or call 01825 76 33 66.
